2003: Alternative Scenarios for CO₂

the Alternative Scenario team plans to complete the analysis of US energy scenarios started last summer. As last year, our premise is that future choices in energy production and consumption will determine whether or not the growth rate of atmospheric CO₂ can be minimized. Our overall objective is to construct energy choices that will force the growth rate of CO₂ concentrations to level off.

Observations from Summer 2002 Research

Actions that have the greatest impact on the growth rate of energy consumption were found to be Conservation and Improvement in Efficiency.

Increases in the production of energy from Renewable Sources made only a small contribution to reducing CO₂ emissions.

The Energy-CO₂ model used last summer to calculate changes in CO₂ emission rates from changes in energy use proved to be inappropriate for the team's classification of energy usage by sectors.

Summer 2003

From summer 2002 results, we know that all initiatives (e.g. improvements in efficiency, use of renewable sources) on energy production and consumption do not affect CO₂ emissions equally. Hence, instead of developing scenarios (Current Trends, Moderate Action, Strong Action) that incorporate initiatives that will have little impact on CO₂ emissions, should we abandon the idea of scenario groupings and analyze every initiative separately? For each sector or initiative, the research process will be the same as last year. The difference will appear only after calculating CO₂ emissions using the Energy-CO₂ model. We could then discuss the effects of various initiatives based on their relative importance to reducing the growth of atmospheric CO₂ concentrations.

Analysis of Initiatives:

Summer 2002 topics of interest were Renewable Energy Sources (biomass, geothermal, hydroelectric, sun and wind), Improvements in Efficiency, (end-use residential, end-use commercial, end-use industrial, transportation, coal-fired power plants) and Other Technologies (transportation reform, sequestration of CO₂, nuclear, coal to gas fuel switching, hydrogen). The first 2 groups were investigated. Projections of energy production and use were made based on 3 scenarios. We now want to expand on last year's research. Throughout our investigation we always need to keep in mind the following.

Guiding principles:

Everything must be documented in a notebook. This includes, among others, how calculations are made, how the relevance of various initiatives is assessed, references to previous investigations and case studies must always be noted.

Orders of magnitude must be noted. For instance, whether one plots energy usage per sector, energy savings due to a particular initiative or other quantities, one must note how important the usage, savings, etc. are compared to total usage, savings, etc. Plots could be constructed to show not only absolute magnitudes but also relative magnitudes.

Discrepancies between data sources must be resolved. For instance, it was noted last summer that the EIA web data and book data for certain items did not match.

Construction of projections must be made in a uniform manner. See 1.2 below.

Summer 2003 synopsis:

Below is our plan for the summer in point form. A schedule for week 1 with milestones follows the synopsis.

1. Review the Current Trend calculations from last year and,
   1. Rank all the particular technologies of energy production (e.g. wind power) or consumption (e.g. transportation) in order of their importance in affecting CO₂ emissions;
   2. Develop a Current Trend projection for each technology/sector. This was done last summer but not in a uniform manner. Some trends were based on linear extrapolation from historical data while others were built using projected growth rates. We need a consistent way of constructing our Current Trend projections –
   3. compare our projections with those from the EIA and IPCC and note differences in results.
2. For each energy technology and energy-use sector analyzed last summer plot the Moderate-scenario and Strong-scenario projections on its Current Trend plot and create an alternative-scenario range associated with a group of energy initiatives for the period 2003-23. Then,
   1. Validate each and every initiative used to create the ranges of possible futures. Here hides the bulk of our work. Every assumption behind an initiative must be validated. This will be done through 1) the review of the appropriate literature to find results of previous investigations, and 2) the collection of case studies. In order to establish the relevance of a particular case study we need to build its relevance grid, that is, to accumulate a set of criteria by which we can assess the relevance of that particular case study for the USA.
   2. Group the most promising (defined on the basis of their potential to reduce CO₂ emissions) technologies and efficiencies to create an alternative-scenario range for that particular grouping. This will quantify future energy savings.
   3. Compare the result of 2.2 to the US National Energy Policy and the energy policies of other communities like the European Union.
3. Refine and adapt the Energy-CO₂ emission model for direct application to our energy analysis. This will show which grouping of initiatives is most likely to neutralize the growth rate of atmospheric CO₂ concentrations in the near future.