2002: Historical and Projected Impacts of Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding in the NY Metro Area

Team Members: Damilola Alade, Denise Asafu-Adjei, Mario Gonzalez, Marquise McGraw, Rochel Bent, Mitch Fox, and Heather McGeory
Scientists: Cynthia Rosensweig and Vivien Gornitz

Introduction:

The New York Metropolitan Region is a coastal area. Storms and storm surges have caused millions of dollars worth of damage and continue to stress the fragile ecosystems in the region. Nor'easters do the most damage to the metropolitan area -- striking about 1-2 times per year, with severe storms causing major flooding every 40-50 years. Hurricanes strike less frequently, but can also be severe. Responses funded at the public level include beach nourishment, rebuilding seaside towns, and rebuilding groins off local beaches.

In addition to sea level rise, global climate change may bring an increase in either/both the intensity and frequency of storms along the east coast. Damages to people and infrastructure could increase -- New York City alone has 600 miles of coastline.

New York's infrastructure is closely connected to the coastal areas -- highways, subways, tunnels, sewage, sanitations facilities, power plants and factories are all found in, on, or adjacent to waterways. Severe flooding with increased frequency could flood the FDR Drive, sections of East Harlem, Coney Island and entire neighborhoods in Staten Island. Almost the entire subway system in NYC is underground and is vulnerable to flooding as well.

Historically, there have been 100-year floods, with a few memorable storms in the NY Metro Area during the last century. Because of global warming, the future may bring more storms and more flooding to the region.

Using tide gauge data from the Battery and other sites, historical evidence, and projections from global climate models, we will examine the history and future projections of sea level rise, storms and storm surges and their impacts. We will develop a Vulnerability Index to the storms to compare different neighborhoods of the city, and we will consider how regional policy-makers can prepare for the projected changes, in ways that will improve resiliency to current storms as well as future ones.

Core Science Questions:

How have storm frequencies and intensities changed in the past 100 years?

How have sea level rise (SLR) and flood heights changed in the past 100 years?

What will coastal storms look like in the future?

How will their intensity, frequency and severity change over the next 100 years?

What areas are the most vulnerable to storm damage and sea level rise?

Research objectives:

Analyze sea level rise and storm surges as a measure of storm intensity. How have they historically impacted coastal areas of New York City?

Analyze how SLR and storm surges, as a measure of storm intensity may change in the future, and how to project future impacts on coastal areas of New York City.

Develop a storm vulnerability index in order to compare regions of NYC.

Research how our city is prepared for these floods.

Evaluate the existing public policy.

(If time permits) Develop a flood susceptibility index based on work of V. Gornitz.

(If time permits) Conduct cost benefit analysis for student proposed flood mitigation (new public policy).

Research Tasks/Methods and Products:

1. Learn about Sea Level Rise (SLR) and factors that contribute to it by reading articles and doing Internet research. Product: Write introductory summary paragraphs for their regions of study.
2. Compile a historical timeline of flooding events in NYC areas of study. Product: Present these timelines to team members as a group.
3. Prepare graphs of projected storm frequency and strength.
4. Gets figures on how population and urban development has changed over last 100 years and make graphs representing trends using Excel.
5. Use tide gauge data to plot SLR for regions of study over last 100 years. Product: time -series plots.
6. Determine average rate of change and project SLR for next 100 years: Product: Extrapolated plot for areas of study.
7. Use IPCC, Hadley Center, and Canadian Center model forecasts to project
8. SLR and flood heights for areas of study. Product: Excel plots of forecasts.
9. Prepare contour overlays of flood heights for areas of study. Product: Flood height maps (based on average rate of SLR from 130-year Tide Gauge readings and other projections if possible)
10. Use the TIPS Website to evaluate existing public policy. Product: TIPS worksheet # 4
11. Develop flood risk index for: Rockaways, lower Manhattan, Jamaica Bay
12. Use TIPS Website to Develop new solutions: Product: Worksheet # 5
13. *Use TIPS Website to Select best solution: Product: Worksheet #6
14. *Use TIPS to Determine benefits and costs of new solution: Product Sheets 7 & 8
15. Conduct Case study on investigations sites (if time permits)

Materials needed:

Tide gauge data, topo maps, handheld GPS.

Datasets:

Tide gauge data, historical storms readings, sea level rise projections, population density and property values.

Mean Sea Level Data: www.pol.ac.uk/psmsl/datainfo/

Individual Station data: www.pol.ac.uk/psmsl/psmsl_individual_stations.html

Science Understandings and Skills students should develop:

Students will need to conceptualize research problems laid out in the above introduction, use Power Point and be able to give a Power Point presentation at the end of the program. They must use the Internet to search for background information and learn to properly cite sources of data, graphics and other information. They will also have to learn how to read contour and weather maps and make graphs as a way to interpret and analyze data. They will learn how to use a GPS unit. Students will prepare overlays of flood heights for maps of study areas at various contour intervals based on several storm strength and sea level rise scenarios. From there, students will learn to examine and evaluate current policy with regards to beach nourishment, wetlands destruction, zoning for coastal areas and the rebuilding of downtown infrastructure. If time permits students may learn to develop new public policy and conduct cost benefit analyses (e.g. sea walls and dikes). Students must learn math skills of graph plotting, determining trends, calculating average slope (rate of change) to extend graphs, and how to combine the SLR with the local subsidence to get the overall change in sea level (SLC).

Learning Activities for Impacts Team Skill Development:

Background Activities:

• View WebQuest (Fox, 2002) on "Stemming the Rising Tides" to learn basic objectives of the research team and preliminary research PowerPoint report by McGraw and Tracey(2002).Product: Answers to guide questions regarding research objectives; e.g. What problem are we investigating? Indicate the social problem the climatic phenomena and the region affected.
• Use Google Internet search to get background info, data and pictures on impacts of recent and historical flooding events in NYC (MEC) region. Use OEM and other student discovered sources. See WebQuest at http://www.bxscience.edu/programs/icp/ppa/stemming.ppt Guide Questions: How is sea level change affecting this area? http://www.bxscience.edu/programs/icp/projects.shtml
• Learn how to conduct basic research by working on the “Teaching Interdisciplinary Problem Solving” (TIPS) Website: www.maxwell.syr.edu/plegal/tips/welcome.html Product: Completed worksheets one and two.
• Plotting Trends: Use data from The Battery and Central Park to plot the average trend sea level rise and temperature over past 150 years. Determine the average slope of the trend ( average rate of change) Guide Questions: How can we determine the trend for local sea level change? What does local sea level trend mean in terms of the global trend (i.e., how and why does it differ?) Why does the local sea level trend vary from place to place?
• Sea Level Change Lab: Produced by Curran and Fox (1998) based on work of V.Gornitz. Guide Question: How do we know how much sea level has changed locally? How can we predict future sea level trends if we know the rate of subsidence, the projected rate of mean sea level rise based on the current regional trend, and projected trends (regional or global) based on global climate models? How are flood levels calculated and how does SLR affect them?
• Interpreting Model Projections: Students construct graphs of various model projections (e.g. CCGG, CCGS, HCGG, HCGS, GISSGG, and GISSGS) using available data or existing model output. Determine their average slopes to get Sea Level Change. Guide Question: What do the models tell us about how local or regional sea level rise and flood levels may change in the future?
• Programmed Learning Activity Package : Learning Module for contour maps Guide Question: How can we determine the extent of coastal flooding to the interior if we know the level of storm surge or tidal height above mean sea level?
• Assorted field trips to the three areas of our studies : Jamaica Bay, Lower Manhattan, The Rockaways- Students will use GPS to determine location and elevations if possible. They will take photos of specific local at hazard. Guide Question: What will be the extent of flooding in our study areas based on flood heights at a 2 foot contour interval up to 20 feet? (if possible). What type of structures, infrastructure ( e.g. hospitals, schools, police stations) are located within the flood risk zone? What evacuation routes are available, in the event of an emergency? What types of sea "defenses" (e.g., sea wall, dikes, levees, dunes, other buffer zones) already exist, and what types may be needed in the future

References

Background readings and discussion questions:

Text: The Atmosphere: 8th Ed. Lutgens and Tarbuck, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle river New Jersey , 2001

• Chp 9 "Weather Patterns" Pages 236- 266: Review Questions P267 Q. 8-18
• Chp 11 "Hurricanes" Pages 299-317 Review Questions 2,3,4,7,8,9,11- 17
• Chp. 14, "Climate Change" Pages 367-389 review Questions: 1,2,5-16.

Journal and other Articles:

• Bloomfield, Janine. "Hot Nights in the City," Environmental Defense Fund, 1999.
• Douglas, Bruce and Richard Peltier. "The Puzzle of Global Sea-Level Rise," Physics Today, March 2002.
• Gornitz, Vivien, (2001) "Sea Level Rise and Coasts" Chapter 3 in Climate Change and a Global City,
• Klein, Richard T., and Nicholls, Robert J. "Assessment of Coastal Vulnerability to Climate Change"
• Smit, Barry, et. al. "Adaptation to Climate Change in the Context of Sustainable Development and Equity"
• Trenberth, Kevin. "Stronger Evidence of Human Influences on Climate: 2001 IPCC Assessment," Environment, May 2001
• IPCC WGI Chapter 1