1999: Climate Change and New York State Agriculture: Projections, Impacts and Adaptation Strategies

Researchers: Pat Cushing, Caryle Ann Francis, Cynthia Giannetti, Ceasar Irby, Charleen Jacobs, Carmen Lopez, Jennifer Phillips, and Leila Woolley

Introduction

The name New York is usually associated with the metropolis, but New York State ranks 4th nationwide in fruit and vegetable production providing fresh produce, wine and dairy products for the sale throughout the East. Within the state, twenty-five percent of the land area is devoted to agriculture, and farmed by 36 thousand farmers. Much of this land is in dairy farms, and New York ranks 3rd in the nation in milk production. Although dairy farmers import a large percentage of the feed for their cows from the Midwest, most grow a portion of their feed on their own farms, with corn production being most important, along with alfalfa, soybeans and wheat.

Given the importance of climate in agricultural production, it is critical to begin to define the potential ramifications of projected changes in regional climate for agricultural in the New York State. Historical trends in temperature for the Northeast actually show cooling over the twentieth century, and recent advances in computer simulations of climate are helping to explain the basis for this, which contrasts with the warming observed in many other parts of the globe. However, changes in temperature and precipitation in either direction will impact crop production and require adaptive strategies if farmers are going to maintain productive farms. In this study, one can investigate the potential impacts of the projections of future climate made by the GISS coupled ocean-atmosphere model for the New York region, and look into possible adaptation strategies that farmers may utilize to mitigate the impacts of a changing climate.

Research Objectives

Contribute to an understanding of how agriculture in New York State may be affected by climate change by answering the following questions:

• How does the magnitude of projected changes in precipitation and temperature compare with recent past variation in climate in NYS?
• How does the projected change in climate for NYS compare to the global mean projected change?
• Will the increase in potential evapotranspiration due to increases in temperature be balanced by an increase in rainfall, and what are the implications for water balance?
• How are the projected changes in precipitation and temperature distributed throughout the seasons, and what significance might this distribution have for summer field crops?
• What potential options might a farmer in NYS have for adapting his/her cropping system to projected changes in climate?

This research parallels the IPCC (Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change) current efforts to investigate regional impacts of climate change, focusing on agricultural production in New York State. In addition to formulating estimates of the impact of changes in precipitation and temperature on soil water balance and crop growth in the prime dairy and field crop regions around the state, investigate possible mitigative strategies farmers may consider. Adaptation strategies will center around the use of alternative maize cultivars, using a crop simulation model which has been tailored specifically to cultivars grown in New York.

Research Tasks

• Analyze the magnitude of change in climate with respect our historical climate and global mean at annual, seasonal, and monthly time scales through graphs and quantitative calculations.
• Calculate the change in potential evapotranspiration due to increased temperature using the Linacre formula, and comparing this change with the change in precipitation on a seasonal basis.
• Use soil texture data for the sites of interest and a "tipping bucket" model of soil water balance, calculate a running balance of summer soil moisture using Excel, and make new estimates of the relationship between soil moisture and crop yields.
• Use the linear models of maize yield developed in the exercise above, estimate future maize yields.
• Develop an interview to be conducted with farmers, including a statement with background on expected climate changes for the Northeast.

Conduct research with a numerical crop growth simulation model which will be used as an alternative method to estimate the impact of climate change on crop yield in NYS, and to explore crop management adaptions. Parameterize the model GAPS for two sites within the climate divisions being studied by the students. Step 1) Using daily climate data from 1972 to present for Syracuse and Albany already formatted for this model, simulate growth for a typical maize cultivar under historical and projected climates to test the change in maize yields. This output can then be compared to the estimates arrived at empirically. Step 2) Alternative maize cultivar parameters and changed planting and harvest dates will be tested under the projected climate scenarios, to estimate possible farmer adaptations to changes in climate.

Data and Tools

Climate and yield data for two NYS climate divisions and counties therein. Additional data needed for the summer consists of monthly output from the GISS General Circulation Model (GCM) from simulations with projected greenhouse gases to the year 2030 depicting an estimate of climate change for the gridbox encompassing NYS. Collect some soil physical property data for the sites of interest for the detailed analysis of soil water balance.