1998: Climate Change in the Northeastern United States and Caribbean: Implications for Energy and Water Resources

Researchers: Pat Cushing, Carlye Ann Francis, Cynthia Giannetti, Alesandra Giannini, Jermaine Hunt, Jennifer Phillips, and Anthony Seivwright
Alumni: Danielle Deane, Donna Hope, Karimi Mailutha, and Meika Robinson

Project Goal for 1998-99

A warming of the Earth's atmosphere due to the build-up of greenhouse gases has been predicted for decades, and more recently substantiated by observations. Contrary to observations from most parts of the world, there is little to no evidence as yet of warming in the Northeastern US. One hypothesis explaining the lack of a climate change signal is that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a natural atmospheric fluctuation that influences climate along the coasts of the Atlantic, is suppressing potential climate warming in the eastern US. Our first objective for the 1998 summer research is to define (1) the potential impacts of global warming on surface temperature and precipitation in the Northeast and Caribbean based on observations and as predicted by the GISS GCM, and (2) the possible role of the NAO in suppressing or enhancing climate change in these regions. The second objective for our team this summer is to explore the implications of these climate scenarios for energy use and water resources through the use of hands-on experience, simple computer models, field trips, and library research.

Science Questions

1. What influence will climate change have in the Northeastern US, especially New York City, and the Caribbean?
2. Why might there not be a significant climate change signal in the observed climate data from these two regions, and might the NAO play a role?
3. Given a set of expected climate change scenarios for New York and the Caribbean, how will these changes effect water resources and energy, both in terms of supply and demand?

Hypotheses

1. The influence of the NAO on temperature in the Northeastern US and the Caribbean is partially responsible for suppressing the climate change signal we expect due to greenhouse gas build-up.
2. Water supply will decrease, and water use will increase in the New York region due to a combination of climate change and population increases by the year 2030.

Research Tasks

1. During summer 1998, form two teams: an energy-use team and a water resources team.
2. Learn the basics of global climate change and planetary energy balance, and define our climate scenarios based on previous team research on the NAO, GCM output, and observed data from the GISS Climate Index.
3. Extract model results for regions of interest from control and doubled CO₂ GISS GCM simulations, and prepare these data for analysis with a spreadsheet.
4. Generate daily weather data from monthly means for energy and water resources simulations, and run the forest hydrology model.
5. Estimate changes in water supply by the NYC watershed under a series of climate change scenarios. Calculate water use under global warming.
6. Compare scenarios of energy use in New York and the Caribbean under current and climate change conditions.

Data

1. Output from B178 (control) and B184 (2×CO₂) GISS GCM runs for gridboxes over the Northeast and the Caribbean at a monthly time scale.
2. The GISS Climate Index
3. Observed Daily weather data for Albany, NY, 1951-1980.