1997: Ocean Variability in the Coupled GCM

Background

We will conduct research on the oceanic and atmospheric phenomena known as El Nino and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the North Polar Jet Stream, to determine their climatic and meteorological significance. It is important to understand the role that the previous phenomena play in the ocean-atmosphere system for the forecasting of droughts, floods and other severe climatic events in North America and Europe. This research will also contribute to the GISS effort to analyze the GCM.

Scientific & Educational Questions Guiding the Research

1. How does ENSO affect weather patterns and climate in North America? (Anthony Luckett)
2. Is there any relationship between ENSO and the NAO? (Errol Brown)
3. How can the realism of the GCM be validated? (Seema Gupta)
4. How can the outcomes of the previous research be incorporated onto the Web and into a six week unit on oceanography in the high school Geoscience class? (Mitch Fox)

Learning Outcomes

From this research we will develop a series of discovery learning modules, background modules, and research skill activities to be conducted in the high school Geoscience and research classes. These activities will explain how the atmosphere and ocean interact to distribute solar energy reaching our planet. It will also advance the understanding of the role of models such as GISS's General Circulation Model (GCM) and Coupled General Circulation Model (CGCM) in research endeavors in which observed data is limited or unavailable.

The educational segment has already begun with the development of a student laboratory experience on earth's radiation budget. This will serve as a springboard to launch the student investigations of the Ocean-Atmosphere interactions through the use of both model and observed data, for both the summer and school year. Additional activities will be produced to help students hone their background knowledge and research skills so that they may reach a level suitable to pursue research more independently. (See school-based activity.) Both educational and research products will be developed on a Web page for easy access according to ICP format. Students in future years will be able to contribute to GISS research by using more updated versions of the GCM and also the Coupled Model (CGCM) of the atmosphere and ocean.

Students will:

• Acquire background knowledge in science/math concepts and processes (See Science and Math)
• Use the Internet to access background information and data
• Use GISS FORTRAN routines to render global distribution patterns for the parameters studied (see data)
• Create difference maps to compare model output to observed data
• Create climatologies from data to represent the average conditions
• Calculate and plot anomalies
• Look at interannual variability through the standard deviation
• Annotate their charts and graphs
• Graph parameters and distinguish trends from cyclic variability or chaos
• Analyze graphs and draw conclusions
• Put results on Web page

Science and Math

This project addresses the way in which the earth system responds to the unequal heating of the planet and the processes which redistribute this energy. There is emphasis placed on the movement of matter and energy through the ocean and atmosphere. Specific processes dealt with are: the hydrologic cycle, phase change, the transport of energy and moisture by the ocean and atmosphere, and the energy cycle. Specific concepts are: Radiation, Radiative balance, specific heat, latent heat, sensible heat, surf flux, salinity, sea surface salinity (SSS), sea surface temperature (SST), density, pressure gradient, sea level pressure (SLP), geopotential height, wind vector, Jet Stream, coriolis effect, currents and circulation cell (Hadley Cell).

Using the formula E=st4 students can calculate the energy balance that must be brought forward to determine the new local Radiative balance for the "Planetary RADIATIVE Budget Research LAB." In addition, the data can be entered on the spreadsheet program Excel and graphs may be constructed by hand or from Chart Wizard. In the "Density Current Challenge," students will attempt to predict, based on temperature and salinity, which body of water will reach a certain depth in a tank. They will discover how thermohaline or density currents flow in deep ocean circulation.

Roles and Timeline

Seema:

• wk 1 - Use the Internet to locate background materials - Begin to learn how to plot monthly global charts using GISS FORTRAN routines and observed and model data. Do library research to locate periodicals and books with articles related to the research questions: Start putting background information, bibliography etc. on Web page. Maintain a log of research activity.
• wk 2 - Continue the search for background information, plot GISS model data as seasonal average, and climatology on global charts. Do the same for observed data. Conduct interviews with team members to shed light on the research topics. Continue to add background material, interviews, and global charts to the Web page.
• wk 3 - Continue interviews, plot monthly and seasonal maps showing the difference between observed and model data. Put these on the Web for reference with questions for students to answer. This will be part of training activities.
• wk 4 - Plot seasonal anomalies for SST, SLP, Jet Stream wind vectors at 500 mb and 250 mb model and observed data in years there were observed ENSO events. Make a link from Web page to the PMEL site to get current SST data. Put products on Web with Mitch and make up questions for students to answer related to ENSO and Jet Stream.
• wk 5 - Determine standard deviation for Jet Stream wind vectors and SST for model data. Learn about standard deviation and how it expresses the interannual variability. Write an explanation of standard deviation and give an analogy. Put charts and graphs on the Web.
• wk 6 - Finish all chart and graph products. Put up products on Web.

Ron: He will identify and provide access to the team datasets described in the next section. He will guide the students in the research and help them in developing abstracts. He will preview Web items before they are entered.

Mitch: Will work with Ron who will supervise the science research content. Will work with Seema to orient her and complete her tasks. Will check on progress and results of Errol, and Anthony. Will work with Ely, Maricela and Errol to improve and complete the "Planetary Radiative Balance Research Project" on the Web. Will work with Anthony and Errol to convert workshop on "The Density Current Challenge" into a Web activity. Will supervise the completion of the Web page. Will contribute to team's ICP journal entry.

Errol: Will work according to a similar timeline of milestones as Seema using the same datasets to be described. He will work on his research topic and assist Mitch with development of two Web activities as well as serve as an assistant teacher.

Anthony: He will work on his research according to the same timeline as Errol and Seema. He will research his topic supervised by Ron and assist Mitch in completing the "Density Currents" Web activity and another seminar activity. He will keep a log and also conduct interviews. He will also be responsible for testing his activities using Excel on a PC to analyze his data set.

Team Datasets and Model

Model Data - Use AGCM Version SI96. More data runs available from this model. Sea Surface Temp (SST), Sea Surface Salinity (SSS), Sea Level Pressure (SLP), Surface Flux, Wind Vector at 250 and 500mb level. Years: 1979-95.

Observed Data - SST, SSS, SLP, Surf Flux, Wind Vector (250, 500mb level) from ECMWF or NCEP, years 1979-1995. Also use Reynolds SST dataset (ECMWF) for 1979-1995.

School-based Activity

The meteorology course, taught in the Fall '97 at The Bronx High School of Science, will incorporate the "Climate Challenge Research Lab" activity and the Global Energy Budget Lab previously developed.

The Web page activities developed by the Pinatubo-Ocean Team will be incorporated into a six week module on oceanography which will be taught at The Bronx High School of Science in the spring of '98. The opportunity to continue research started by Errol, Anthony and Seema will be presented to the Geoscience/Oceanography students.

The honors chemistry classes (Fall '97) will be afforded the opportunity to carry on the Acid-Rain Project and also receive the opportunity to study the effect of aerosols on the environment through the use of Mr. Curran's hand held polarimeters. Data could be put on the Web to share with other ICP schools.