1996: Storm Tracks: Observations and Simulations

Team Members: Alex Estrella, Josie Krug, Robert Nociti, Hector Pascal, Jahayra Trinidad, David Vargas, Cheryell Woodley

Research Objectives 1

The main objective of this project is to produce an accurate computer program that is capable of tracking vorticity highs over the northern hemisphere based on horizontal wind data.

Tools: Date used - NMC horizontal wind data from 1963 to 1989 over the northern hemisphere. Tools - Fortran algorithm.

Tasks: 1) Complete program (algorithm), fin tuning the program by adjusting the parameters within the program. 2) Evaluate its accuracy by comparing its output to weather maps and the sea level pressure version of the storm tracks program.

Research Objectives 2

The main objective of this project is to characterize storms identified by the sea level pressure storm tracking program. We identified these characteristics such as, central pressure, pressure gradient, geographic location and precipitation. Precipitation which is the most important characteristic of storms, we will analyze this property quantitatively.

Tools: NMC (Sea Level Pressure) (1979 to 1995). GCM (Sea Level Output). NOAA/NCDC US Daily Precipitation Data. Daily Weather Maps. Geographic Area: United States of America.

Tasks: 1) Select three intense storms associated with precipitation in every season, using Daily Weather Maps. 2) Use the storm tracks program to plot the three most intense storms chosen for each season.

Research Objectives 3

Learn how different factors produce storms with precipitation. Produce analysis of storms during different seasons with the US Daily Weather Maps to determine if those storms can be identified by the storm tracks program.

Tools: US daily Weather Maps, GCM Sea Level Pressure results, NMC Sea Level Pressure Data.

Tasks: Pick three intense storms from all seasons that have precipitation. Run the storm tracks program against the chosen storms and see if the program picked it up. Some of the things we'll look at is: a) data, b) season, c) pressure gradient, d) central pressure, e) duration of storm, f) precipitation, g) longitude, h) latitude.

Research Objectives 4

Our objective is to find out if global warming and the associated intensification of the hydrological cycle is changing the precipitation patterns in the United States. Both in frequency and intensity by regions.

Tools: Our team is using NOAA/NCDC precipitation data from 138 stations in the US. The data sets are daily from 1900 to 1987. Our team is attempting to acquire similar data from Canada (since many of our storms pass through this region) and to update our date to include the Pinatubo event. This data will be studied in two ways. One method will average and sum the precipitation over various areas and time periods (USPP) and the other will average and sum only during actual events (USPI). This method will help determine if the precipitation is actually becoming more intense even though over all precipitation may not be changing. We will also like to validate the GCM output to see if similar trends are simulated.

Tasks: To accomplish our objectives our team will produce time series plots of precipitation at individual stations. Our team will divide the US into 6 regions, NE, SE, N. Cent., S. Cent., NW, SW and select appropriate stations in each area. Time series plots of each station will be produced by mid July. Due to the high variability of precipitation, our team will also average several sites to characterize regional trends by the end of July. A time series comparison from 1979 to the present between observed precipitation and GCM output will be produced by the beginning of August.