1996: Impacts of Climate Change

Team Members: Danielle Deane, Allison Godshall, Martin Hercules, Donna Hope, Karimi Mailutha, Meika Robinson, Dereck Skeete

Research Objectives 1

To analyze climate data for 12 sites in the U.S. cornbelts.

Tools: Data from 1950-1994. DSSAT Crop Model and Excel

Tasks: Use climate analysis in DSSAT to separate temperature and precipitation into La Nino and El Niño years, then graph.

Research Objectives 2

To compare results of two models, GAPS and the GISS land-surface model with observed streamflow data from a forested watershed. To evaluate the different methods of averaging the vegetation parameters in the models

Tools: Data from the Black Rock Forest research site up the Hudson River. The Site in its "natural" state is a watershed representative of the geology and vegetation found in most of the Catskills. Simulations of watershed yield will be performed with 1994-95 data.

Tasks: Conduct model investigations to see how the results of the area-averaged model change by adding multiple classes of vegetation. This is so because the low horizontal resolution usually needed in the GCMs (4° x 5°) grid box requires that very large areas of non-homogenous vegetation be averaged to single values for heat and water flux calculations which is likely to introduce serious errors. It is anticipated that the outcome of this summer's activity will shed light on the sensitivity of the model to land cover and land use paramaterization.

Research Objectives 3

Learn how greatly ENSO affects crop yields globally. Produce enough data to formulate better/alternate farming methods or poor crop predictions.

Tools: Web data from Lamont Doherty Labs, ENSO Level. Period: 1950-1992. Area: Indonesia. Data Set Contents: SST, El Niño, rice wet and dry paddie yields.

Tasks: Use Excel spreadsheets for wet and dry rice paddie yields at 16 specific Indonesian provinces. With the addition of SST crop anomalies for Nov - Dec - Jan, make graphs of the province site yield vs. time period.

Research Objectives 4

The main goal for the summer is to make the water balance in the crop model more precise. An improved water balance will allow me to capture more precisely the variability of yields as reported in observed data from the 1950 to 1996 time span in two different sites.

Tools: We will be using daily max and min data, daily solar radiation and daily precip data from 12 sites over the corn belt region to run DSSAT3 (the crop model)

Tasks: Objectives will be addressed by making a) changes to the data we input into the model, i.e., solar radiation values and repeating the test runs to compare to original unaltered runs, b) methods of calculating PET (potential evapotranspiration) and then doing test runs and deciding is we are better or worse at simulating yields.

Research Objectives 5

To investigate the influence of land cover change in the NYC watershed on water supply to the NYC area. To investigate the frequency of occurrence of extreme low or high flow events and interaction with potential land use change. Learn and appreciate the importance of watershed management to urban areas. Secondly, gain knowledge on scientific concepts encompassing my research and that of others.

Tools: GAPS, a soil-plant atmosphere model developed at Cornell University with observed stream flow and climate data from a forest watershed. The investigation will be carried out using data from 1994 and 1995 at Black Rock Forest in the Hudson River Valley. The outputs are drainage and run-off which will be used to calculate stream flow.

Tasks: Model simulations will be run with surface parameterized for this and various changed distributions of land use to investigate the potential percent changes in stream flow that may result. Daily weather data for the simulations may be created using long-term - term monthly climate records from the Catskills watershed region and weather generator.

Research Objectives 6

To analyze the relationships between crop yields and prices in the three different El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases, and thus estimate the economic risk for the farmers in each phase. Corn and soybeans are the crops that will be focused on.

Tools: Historical data was obtained on the yields and prices for corn and soybeans from the US Department of Agricultural (USDA) website. Data on the economic expenses incurred by farmers was also obtained from same web site. ENSO Sea Surface Temperature (SST) data was obtained from Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University. The analysis will focus on the information from 1950 onwards. Excel spreadsheet program and its statistical tools will be used to analyze the data.

Tasks: Data sets will be combined and graphs will be generated to analyze the trends between SSTs, crop yields and crop prices, so as to establish the validity of basing risk analysis on ENSO phases. For the 3 ENSO phases, the economic returns and the risks incurred by the farmers will be calculated.